Jake Johnson appears to have ridden a blue wave into Congress, upsetting incumbent Brad Finstad in a district once seen as safely Republican, though the razor-thin margin will trigger a recount.
The Rochester teacher-turned-Democratic candidate won the 1st Congressional District race with just 324 votes to spare with all precincts reporting, according to Minnesota Secretary of State preliminary results.
The Johnson supporters who stuck around at his Rochester watch party into the early hours Wednesday erupted in celebration when a decisive batch of results tipped the race in the Democrat’s favor.
Nik Marda, Johnson’s campaign manager, called the candidate to inform him. “You will end the night up,” he said. “You have won.”
Johnson later declared victory in a news release.
But Johnson will need to withstand a recount, automatically triggered by the tight margin.
His presumed victory sealed a thoroughly miserable night for Republicans in Congress, who ceded control of the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. He will join a House Democratic majority on the back of a moderate campaign focused on economic issues.
Just two years ago, Finstad dispatched his Democratic opponent by 17%, outperforming President Donald Trump’s margin of victory in the process. Johnson shaved down margins in the rural, more conservative counties in the district, while racking up winning margins in populations centers around Rochester and Mankato.
Against Johnson, Finstad sought to tie the first-time candidate to Gov. Tim Walz. The governor was a teacher like Johnson before representing southern Minnesota in Congress as a Democrat.
In the final days before the election, Finstad touted his support for manufacturing. Business leaders thanked him at a Faribault event for passing H.R. 1, which included provisions helping American manufacturers.
Finstad’s loyalty to President Donald Trump, however, made him vulnerable this year. He didn’t join other Republicans in votes aimed at curbing the president’s tariff and war policies, for example, which contributed to rising costs on businesses and consumers.
Trump took to social media on Election Day to endorse Finstad. He called Johnson, who has been running as a moderate, a “radical left Democrat.”
Finstad’s disconnection from his constituents gave Johnson further fodder on the campaign trail. Finstad is one of many Republicans who doesn’t hold town halls, sticking instead to more controlled meetings with hand-picked local leaders.
Johnson seized on the issue, holding town halls in all 21 counties in the district.
“It’s that sort of relationship that I think people should be able to expect – not just a photo op, not just a pretend tele-town hall, but an actual, honest conversation where we get to the bottom of problems and solutions,” he said during an Election Day stop in Mankato.
At a precinct located in the shadow of the Ear of Corn Water Tower in Rochester, voter Matthew Wagner said one reason he cast a ballot for Johnson was because of Finstad’s “lack of presence and interaction with his constituency.” The economy was another deciding factor for Wagner, who commutes an hour to his job as a nurse practitioner.
“I drive a small crossover, but it’s a diesel, which used to be great because it got 35 miles a gallon,” he said. “It now costs me $130 to fill it up every week.”
Backlash against proposed data centers in Pine Island and Faribault created another wedge issue in the race. Johnson called for a moratorium on hyperscale developments while Finstad stuck with a local-control stance.
Noah Embretson and his mother, Janet Burmeister, voted early in Rice County. The rural Faribault residents cited data centers among the reasons for choosing Johnson over Finstad.
“You’re talking about our water here, the Jordan aquifer, and what kind of strain it’s going to have on that,” Embretson said.
Turns out, the math teacher found the winning formula.
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